TERRORIST THREATS AND TRANSITIONAL DYNAMICS IN AN OVERLAPPING GENERATIONS MODEL

Previous research has shown that the duration of a civil war is in part a function of how it ends: in government victory, rebel victory, or negotiated settlement. We present a model of how protagonists in a civil war choose to stop fighting. Hypotheses derived from this theory relate the duration of a civil war to its outcome as well as characteristics of the civil war and the civil war nation. Findings from a competing risk model reveal that the effects of predictors on duration vary according to whether the conflict ended in government victory, rebel victory, or negotiated settlement.     

装备研制方案评估的群决策方法研究

针对装备研制方案的群决策问题,分析了常规决策方法的不足之处,并指出在某些情况下,按照常规的处理思路,可能会将合理的方案当成劣解而无意中排除。提出采用改进的优序法来解决装备研制方案的群决策问题,从而达到提高决策质量的目的,给出了计算实例。     

火炮随动系统射击试验射弹数的自动控制

针对火炮随动系统射击试验中射击时机和射弹数难于人工控制的特点 ,讨论了利用火炮随动测试系统进行自动控制的可行性 ,分析了射弹数自动控制的误差。     

Determining a threshold control policy for an imperfect production system with rework jobs

Consider a threshold control policy for an imperfect production system with only a work center handling both regular and rework jobs. An imperfect production system studied here, generates defect jobs by factors other than machine failures. A threshold control or (ω, s) policy sets the guideline for a work center to switch between regular and rework jobs. A production cycle begins with loading and processing of several batches of regular jobs with a lot size equal to s. The outcome of each completed regular job is an independent Bernoulli trial with three possibilities: good, rework, or scrap. Once the work center accumulates more than a threshold ω of rework jobs, it finishes the last batch of regular jobs and switches to rework jobs. The objective of this research is to find a threshold ω and a lot size s that maximize the average long‐term profit. The ultimate goal is to construct a simple algorithm to search for ω and s that can be implemented directly in production management systems, as a result of this work. © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 46: 273–301, 1999     

Sojourn times in G/M/1 fork‐join networks

We consider a processing network in which jobs arrive at a fork‐node according to a renewal process. Each job requires the completion of m tasks, which are instantaneously assigned by the fork‐node to m task‐processing nodes that operate like G/M/1 queueing stations. The job is completed when all of its m tasks are finished. The sojourn time (or response time) of a job in this G/M/1 fork‐join network is the total time it takes to complete the m tasks. Our main result is a closed‐form approximation of the sojourn‐time distribution of a job that arrives in equilibrium. This is obtained by the use of bounds, properties of D/M/1 and M/M/1 fork‐join networks, and exploratory simulations. Statistical tests show that our approximation distributions are good fits for the sojourn‐time distributions obtained from simulations. © 2008 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2008     

关于研究生“三助”工作的设想

本文旨在阐述研究生“三助”工作在高校教育管理工作中的拓展空间，探讨做好研究生“三助”工作以及与学业奖学金互补的可行办法。     

军械仓库的物资发放研究

用仿真模型研究了仓库物资的发放过程,定量解决了如何科学合理地分配一条作业线中作业机械的使用问题。根据这一结果,研究了在给定作业量的情况下如何确定作业机械数量的方法。     

Bayesian enhanced decision making for deteriorating repairable systems with preventive maintenance

Since a system and its components usually deteriorate with age, preventive maintenance (PM) is often performed to restore or keep the function of a system in a good state. Furthermore, PM is capable of improving the health condition of the system and thus prolongs its effective age. There has been a vast amount of research to find optimal PM policies for deteriorating repairable systems. However, such decisions involve numerous uncertainties and the analyses are typically difficult to perform because of the scarcity of data. It is therefore important to make use of all information in an efficient way. In this article, a Bayesian decision model is developed to determine the optimal number of PM actions for systems which are maintained according to a periodic PM policy. A non‐homogeneous Poisson process with a power law failure intensity is used to describe the deteriorating behavior of the repairable system. It is assumed that the status of the system after a PM is somewhere between as good as new for a perfect repair and as good as old for a minimal repair, and for failures between two preventive maintenances, the system undergoes minimal repairs. Finally, a numerical example is given and the results of the proposed approach are discussed after performing sensitivity analysis. © 2007 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2008     

Turbo均衡的误码率性能分析及应用

对Turbo均衡系统中的分量编码器、约束长度、交织长度、迭代次数、码率等参数进行了系统分析,在log-MAP算法基础上,仿真出了这些参数与误码率之间的定量关系,并分析了Turbo均衡在高斯白噪声信道和瑞利信道中的不同表现,为Turbo均衡的具体应用提供了可靠的参数选择依据。针对短波信道不稳定,短波电台数传误码率高的情况,设计了以Turbo均衡为核心的无线增强解决方案,并通过仿真验证了其在不同信噪比条件下降低误码率的效果。     

基于改进AHP的多传感器协同探测效能评估方法

为对多传感器协同探测效能进行准确、可信的评估,提出了一种基于改进层次分析法(Analytic Hierarchy Process,简称AHP)的效能评估方法.依据多传感器协同探测目的选取效能评估指标,采用层次分析法建立效能评估指标体系,利用经验值进行各指标权重赋值,并通过熵权法对各指标权重进行综合计算,最后得到效能评估值.算例验证表明,该方法能够进行全面、客观的效能评估,减小了主观因素干扰,对多机传感器协同探测的研究具有一定参考价值.